In the midst of a military escalation that could still widen, and with the political track stalled for years, the “road map” file is back in focus once again — but under more complicated conditions, as trust between the parties erodes and regional calculations increasingly overlap beyond Yemen.
At a time when the internationally recognized Yemeni government says it has no serious negotiating partner, the Iran-aligned Houthi group is moving to expand its external role by involving itself in escalation linked to Iran’s war, raising questions about the value of any political process amid such a gap.
Road map without solid ground
More than two years after the road map was put forward, it remains effectively frozen. The Yemeni government says it accepted it through Saudi-Omani mediation, but official statements say it runs up against the absence of any party willing to enter into a genuine settlement.
From the Saudi ambassador’s visit to Yemen to Sana’a years ago
In an earlier statement, Yemeni Foreign Minister Shaya Zindani said the problem was not the mechanisms, but the nature of the other side, which had not presented a clear political vision for the state and had shown no real willingness to engage in a stable negotiating process.
This stalemate is matched by a more pessimistic UN assessment. UN envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has acknowledged that trust between the parties has fallen to its lowest level, both internally and in their relations with the international community, making any future settlement dependent on redefining the basis for negotiations.
International understanding gap
According to Yemeni officials, part of the deadlock stems from the way the international community has handled the Yemen crisis, focusing on the symptoms of the conflict rather than its political and social roots.
From the Saudi ambassador’s visit to Yemen to Sana’a years ago
In this context, Grundberg stressed that understanding Yemen is not easy, and that any attempt to impose ready-made solutions without grasping the complexity of reality will not lead to positive results. In light of this imbalance, initiatives become little more than temporary attempts to contain tension rather than address it.
Regionally, the picture is no less complicated. Saudi Arabia appears inclined to manage the conflict with a policy of patience, avoiding a slide into open confrontation, but at the same time it is not granting the Houthis political recognition.
In an assessment of the future of the political track, political analyst Abdul Sattar al-Shamiri told Alhal Net in a private statement that “the road map, in the near term, remains closer to a theoretical concept than a workable project,” adding that it is “likely to remain postponed for years, given the absence of the conditions needed to implement it on the ground.”
As for the undeclared truce between the United States and Iran, al-Shamiri ruled out any direct impact on the Yemen file, describing it as “a fragile truce that could collapse at any moment,” and predicting a return to escalation once it ends.
On popular pressure in areas controlled by the Houthi group, al-Shamiri said it does not constitute real pressure on the group, saying that “the Houthis do not treat this pressure as a meaningful expression of public sentiment, given their reliance on repression and security control.”
As for the Saudi position, the Yemeni expert said Riyadh is pursuing a policy of patience and betting on time as part of its management of the conflict, but he stressed that this does not mean granting the Houthis political legitimacy, noting that the file will remain on hold until the circumstances change.
The Yemeni road map: a faltering political track to end the war
Yemen’s road map is an international and regional attempt to bring the ongoing war to an end through a political formula that combines a final halt to military operations, the handling of humanitarian issues, and a push toward a comprehensive settlement.
The road map emerged from a long negotiating process that began with the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, passed through multiple rounds, and reached the fragile 2022 truce, which helped create the climate for proposing a broader framework for a solution.
It relies on a package of measures, including a ceasefire, addressing economic issues, easing movement, and launching a political dialogue under international sponsorship.
Even so, implementation still faces complex challenges amid continuing mistrust and diverging interests, which is hindering the move from theoretical understandings to practice.
The Houthis in the regional equation
Alongside the political stalemate, the Iran-aligned Houthi group continues to expand its presence on the regional scene by involving itself in confrontations linked to Iran, whether through missile attacks or threats to international shipping.
Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia
On the Israeli position, researcher Ahmed al-Deeb, who specializes in Israeli affairs, told Alhal Net that Tel Aviv so far views Houthi attacks as having “limited impact” and sees them as part of an Iranian attempt to improve negotiating terms rather than an independent military escalation.
Al-Deeb said Israel has not responded directly because, in its assessment, the Houthi group “avoids broad involvement for fear of receiving costly strikes that could affect its internal cohesion.” He added that any Israeli military move will remain tied to the nature of the attacks and their consequences, especially if vital facilities are targeted or casualties are caused.
He added that Yemen’s geographic distance and the high cost of military operations are additional factors in the calculation to hold back, alongside Israel’s preoccupation with more sensitive fronts, foremost among them Iran and Lebanon.
Even so, al-Deeb believes confrontation between the two sides is likely to continue, given the Houthis’ declared readiness to engage in any regional confrontation against Israel, making them a present actor in any possible escalation.
He said the Houthi threat, from the Israeli perspective, is not limited to the military dimension, but extends to maritime routes, supply chains and energy, giving it an economic dimension that goes beyond direct confrontation.
He noted that Israel could move to target the Houthis if their field role expands.
He concluded that Tel Aviv does not see the Houthis as an existential threat, but it does treat them as a threat to national security, adding that one of the most important lessons it drew after the Oct. 7 attacks is the need to contain sources of threat before they escalate, with a particular focus on weakening Iran as the main backer of these groups.
Yemeni interior: fragile cohesion
Domestically, the internationally recognized Yemeni government faces layered challenges related to political divisions and mounting economic pressure.
With the Houthi group controlling the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, its influence has gradually expanded to dimensions beyond Yemen, according to a recent study by the Century International Center, making that control a direct threat to international shipping security and supply chains.
Even so, the Presidential Leadership Council says there is consensus among its members on confronting the Iran-aligned Houthi group.
At the same time, the economic situation is being affected by the escalation, especially after attacks on oil facilities, which have further complicated the Yemeni scene and weakened the government’s ability to stabilize conditions.
This uneven picture reveals a negotiating track lacking the conditions for implementation, and a military track gradually expanding within regional calculations.
In the absence of trust between the parties, the chances of the road map succeeding in the near term appear limited, though the possibility of its revival remains if the balance of power changes.
