“Trump’s Hell”: The Devastating Scenario Awaiting Iran if Talks Fail

In the next few hours, attention will turn to what Washington may do if the deadline President Donald Trump has set passes without an agreement with Tehran, amid growing fears that his threat to plunge Iran into a “hell scenario” could turn into a series of broad strikes hitting key parts of the country’s economy and vital infrastructure.Trump’s 10-day deadline expires at dawn on Wednesday, after he tied any possible settlement to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran continues to pressure at one of the most sensitive moments of tension since the latest confrontation began.Escalating “hell” scenariosAvailable indications suggest that the description “hell” does not necessarily refer to a single, specific option, but rather to a package of escalating scenarios, beginning with limited military operations and targeted pressure and potentially ending, if all containment efforts fail, in a broad confrontation targeting energy, water and oil infrastructure, placing the Iranian economy before a new existential test.In this context, Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday evening that the deadline was nearly over, hinting that Iran had “only 48 hours” before the “curse of hell,” in a message that appeared to combine political threat, psychological pressure and diplomatic blackmail.In a speech yesterday, Monday, during an annual White House event marking Easter, Trump said the deadline he set for reaching a deal with Iran was “final,” adding that Iran would surrender and, if it did not, it would have no bridges, power stations or anything else left.Trump added that Washington could wipe out Iran in one night, perhaps as soon as tomorrow night, and could also destroy all of Iran’s bridges and power plants “within four hours,” stressing that no one has the army or military equipment the United States has. He said: “The war can be ended very quickly if the Iranians do what they have to do,” adding that Iran wants a ceasefire because it is being annihilated.At the same time, regional actors are making a last-ditch effort to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran, with reports of mediation led by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table, amid efforts to craft an exit that would secure a halt to the war and the reopening of the strategic strait.A deep negotiating gapIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also hinted at his country’s readiness to engage in talks, but Axios reported that Tehran still rejects any temporary ceasefire and insists on a permanent end to the war, with guarantees preventing the United States from launching another attack. The contrast underscores the depth of the divide between the two sides and leaves the chances of a last-minute understanding hostage to delicate calculations that do not yet look reassuring.On the domestic front in the United States, pressure from congressional hawks continues to push for a harder line. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned that a “massive military operation” awaits Iran if it makes the wrong choice, in a message that aligns with the president’s hardline rhetoric and points to a political environment supportive of escalation.By contrast, Israel appears to be preparing for the aftermath of diplomatic failure. Israeli sources told Yedioth Ahronoth that the security establishment is bracing for a new wave of attacks that could target energy facilities deep inside Iran, pending the final “green light” from Washington.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also held a small security meeting to approve additional offensive plans, while Israel approved an updated list of targets that includes energy sites and infrastructure, in anticipation of any collapse in the talks.Military coordination and Israeli anticipationAccording to two Israeli sources who spoke to CNN, these moves reflect a growing conviction in Tel Aviv that a deal is out of reach, and that any possible settlement would have to include, from the Israeli perspective, Iran handing over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and a complete halt to enrichment activities.The sources also revealed that Netanyahu and Trump recently discussed diplomatic prospects and ways to strengthen military coordination in a phone call, suggesting that the political and military tracks have become so intertwined that they are now difficult to separate.In a more pessimistic analytical assessment, writer and political analyst Ahmed Ramadan said in a post on X that the escalation between Iran and the United States has already moved beyond political maneuvering and entered the realm of strategic decisions that may not be affected even if Tehran shows maximum flexibility or fully accepts the American terms.Catastrophic losses and open-ended responsesRamadan says talk of “surrender” is no longer enough to avert a strike, since the target bank, in his view, has already been set in advance. That means the chances of backing down are now limited, and the Iranians could soon face a devastating battlefield reality that would set the country back many years.The potential losses are estimated at enormous figures, based on overlapping international sources. The initial cost of destruction could reach about $250 billion, and may rise to more than $500 billion if vital infrastructure is widely targeted, including some 130 major power plants and 200 auxiliary stations, as well as transport networks, railways, airports, ports and industrial facilities that form the backbone of the Iranian economy.He says reconstruction, even in the best-case scenario, could take at least two decades, provided financing is available and the political environment is stable — something that is not guaranteed amid continuing tensions.Intense Iranian escalationIn response, Tehran is expected to escalate militarily, increasing the pace of missile attacks, including the use of missiles with greater destructive power, in an effort to impose a new deterrence equation. But, according to his analysis, this escalation may not be limited to a direct confrontation with Israel; it could extend to a wider range of regional targets, raising serious concerns among neighboring countries, especially in the Gulf. He noted that a large share of the possible targets are civilian in nature, opening the door to grave humanitarian and economic consequences.He adds that the uncertainty surrounding the scale of losses inside Israel, amid the secrecy of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, reflects the sensitivity of the home front and fears over the impact of any prolonged escalation on public opinion, at a time when the risk is growing of the region sliding into an open confrontation that would be difficult to contain or predict.

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