On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum was detained inside the presidential palace in Niamey, trapped there without knowing what the future held for him or how events would unfold. Niger now stands between its long past, marked by the spirit of independence and democratic values, and a vague, risk-filled future. The current reality in Niger raises real fears and concern about a repeat of the familiar scenario seen in Mali after the French presence receded and a controversial Russian role emerged.
The military coup in Niger is the latest in a series of coups that West African countries have witnessed in recent years. In 2021, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea all experienced military coups. Many reports indicate that the Russian Wagner Group played a role in these coups.
The current situation makes it necessary to look closely at developments in Niger and understand the lessons that can be drawn from Mali’s experience. This raises questions about a possible role for Wagner, the Russian group that has stirred international controversy because of its interventions in other conflicts, and whether the group has future interests in Niger, or whether Wagner’s presence in this region still has a major impact on political and security shifts.
Repeating the Military Coup Scenario
Last Wednesday, a number of soldiers in Niger announced on state television the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum and the closure of the borders of the West African country. The soldiers said they had dissolved the constitution and suspended all state institutions.
The presidential guard detained Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum early on Wednesday. In the televised announcement that same day, Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane, alongside nine other soldiers in military uniform, said, “We, the defense and security forces, have decided to put an end to the regime you know.”
The soldiers did not disclose any details about their future plans, but said they would form a “transitional government.” The coup has raised fears of a repeat of the scenario seen in Mali after the French presence receded in favor of a Russian role represented by the Wagner Group.
Although there have so far been no official statements linking Russia to what is happening in Niger, French media in particular have hinted at the possibility of a Wagner role in the events, especially since the actual coup leaders—General Omar Tchiani, commander of the presidential guard; Colonel Ibroh Amadou Bacharou; General Moussa Salaou Barmou, commander of the special forces; National Guard commander Ahmed Sidian; and General Salifou Mody, the former army chief of staff whom President Bazoum removed and appointed ambassador months ago—have ties to Saddam Haftar, the son of Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar, and to Wagner.
Niger is one of the countries in the world that has seen the most coups in its modern history, having recorded four coups since its independence from France in 1960, in addition to many failed coup attempts, one of them just two days before Bazoum himself was sworn in. The last coup in the African country took place in February 2010, when President Mamadou Tandja was overthrown.
In April 2021, Bazoum secured a hard-fought victory, winning 2.5 million votes against 1.9 million for his rival Mahamane Ousmane—more than 55 percent of the vote—despite Mahamane belonging to the Hausa tribe, whose members make up 50 percent of the population.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued a statement describing the events in Niger as “an attempted coup,” saying it “condemns in the strongest terms the attempt to seize power by force.”
Is the Mali Scenario Being Repeated in Niger?
What happened in Niger last Wednesday is the most significant development in the region since Mali’s 2021 coup, according to Moussa Tissi, an expert and academic in African political science and international relations, speaking to Al-Hal Net, especially since West Africa is an important geopolitical and economic region. It is also a region suffering from many challenges, including terrorism and the spread of armed groups.
There are many possible reasons for the coup, but the most likely one is Wagner’s attempt to exploit the escalating conflict with Islamist militant groups in northern Niger, along with Bazoum’s intention to dismiss Tchiani. In recent years, violence in the region has escalated sharply, leading to the deaths of hundreds of civilians and thousands of soldiers.
In Tissi’s view, the coup in Niger is a dangerous development with major repercussions for the region. Amid political instability in Niger, violence in the north of the country is likely to continue. The coup could also lead to the spread of chaos in other countries in the region, such as Mali and Burkina Faso.
Tissi does not rule out Russia playing an important role in Niger after the coup. In recent years, Russia has increased its influence in Africa, and Niger is considered one of its most important strategic targets. If it is proven that the Wagner Group played a role in the military coup in Niger, that would be a dangerous development. It would indicate that Russia seeks to expand its influence in West Africa. It would also indicate that the Wagner Group has become a dangerous military force in the region.
In 2021, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, entered Mali. The group played an important role in supporting the Malian army in fighting militant groups. It is likely to play a similar role in Niger after the coup. This would increase tension in the region and raise the likelihood of the spread of ISIS and al-Qaeda, as happened in African countries where Wagner supported military coups.
Russian Flags and a Fire at the Ruling Party Headquarters
Demonstrations took place in the capital, Niamey, yesterday, Thursday, in support of the coup leaders. Participants played music to express their support for the army, while Russian flags and slogans hostile to UN forces were raised. Supporters of the military coup in Niger also looted the headquarters of the ruling Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism.
Wagner’s growing presence came after the military juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso strengthened relations with Russia after taking power in 2020 and 2022 respectively, and severed ties with their traditional Western allies.
According to Tissi, the main developments that raise fears of a repeat of the Mali scenario in Niger are the soldiers’ announcement of President Mohamed Bazoum’s removal and the suspension of state institutions. This reflects escalating political and security tensions in Niger and may indicate the possibility of a serious political crisis.
The current analysis of the situation in Niger shows the importance of French geopolitical influence in the region. The retreat of the French presence in Mali created an opportunity for the emergence of a Russian role represented by the Wagner Group, raising doubts about the possibility of this scenario being repeated in Niger.
The ongoing protests in the country, which are being stirred up by the coup military council, may have economic, social, and security causes. This is partly due to the economic challenges facing Niger and their effects on society and internal security; but according to Tissi, their purpose is far deeper: to confer legitimacy on the coup.
The expected future of Niger after this political development may be uncertain and fraught with challenges. In terms of the balance of power in the region, it will certainly become fertile ground for jihadist organizations, as happened in neighboring countries. It could also allow the Russian Wagner Group’s role to continue in Niger and other countries if the group’s future interests in the region are secured.
The coup in Niger is a dangerous development with major repercussions. Violence in the north of the country is likely to continue, and Russian involvement in Niger through Wagner will increase tension in the region and raise the likelihood of new conflicts breaking out, most of them driven by jihadist organizations. The question remains how Niger remained within a French sphere of influence for decades, and whether Wagner’s intervention will create reasons for China to intervene in the political and economic scene, exploiting emerging opportunities to gain influence and leave its mark on this conflict, and whether the coup military council is moving toward alignment with the Russian role represented by Wagner.
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